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xkcd: Lanes - ガン治療後の「生存率」と言ういくつかの車線


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男1: So, are you guys out of the woods?

男2: We don't know.

男1: Well, did the treatment work?

男2: We don't know.

I always assumed that when you got cancer, they gave you a prognosis, then treated you, and at the end of treatment either you beat it or you died.

And I knew sometimes it "recurred", which I assumed meant back to square one.

But that's turned out not to be quite right.

男2: Once most cancers spread out into your body, they're incurable.

If your 10-year prognosis is 60% that means a 60% chance that some cancer will slip past the treatment and get out.

So they kill all the cancer they can find, and then you're a "survivor". But your odds are still 60%.

They can't scan for individual cancer cells. The only way to know if it worked is to wait for tumors pop up elsewhere.

If you go enough years without that happening then you were in the 60%.

And often the first sign is a cough or bone pain.

So you spend the next five or ten years trying not to worry that every ache and pain is the answer to the question "do I make it?"

男1: Man.

Fuck cancer.

男2: Seriously.

Alt-text: Each quarter of the lanes from left to right correspond loosely to breast cancer stages one through four (at diagnosis).






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