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Election Impact Score Sheet - 選挙インパクト・スコアシート


Election Impact Score Sheet(選挙インパクト・スコアシート)

Do you know anyone in Arizona?

Research shows that reminders from friends and family to vote have a bigger effect on turnout than anything campaigns do.

One of the best ways you can help is to scroll through your contacts (or use apps like VoteWithMe) to find people you can check in with to see if they plan to vote or need help doing it.

This chart lets you tally the effect of your reminders on the outcome based on who you've contacted and where they live.

Election impact score sheet

* Multiplier based on 538 presidential vote impact, plus points for senate and local elections
 (※ 538票の選挙人の影響に基づく乗数に、上院選と地方選のポイントを加えた。)

In smaller text, to the right of the main score sheet, a duplicate of the score sheet with red tally marks and points is shown

Based on turnout experiments, 10 points on this scale has roughly as much effect on the outcome as one average vote.
For every 10 points you tally, it's as if you voted again!

[Click for printable version]

Share a pic of your score sheet with #Hashtag, and be sure to send a copy to Nate Silver to let him know to include those extra votes in his model!

Alt-text: You might think most people you know are reliable voters, or that your nudge won't convince them, and you will usually be right. But some small but significant percentage of the time, you'll be wrong, and that's why this works.


 この記事のカテゴリは、xkcd日本語訳(2020年) です。

Probability Comparisons - 確率の比較


Probability Comparisons(確率の比較)

0.01% You guess the last four digits of someone's Social Security Number on the first try
 (0.01% 最初の試みで誰かの社会保障番号の下4桁を推測)
0.1% Three randomly chosen people are all left-handed
 (0.1% ランダムに選ばれた3人が全員左利き)
0.2% You draw 2 random Scrabble tiles and get M and M
 (0.2% ランダムに2つのスクラブルタイルを選び、MとMを取る)
You draw 3 random M&Ms and they're all red
0.3% You guess someone's birthday in one try.
 (0.3% 一回の挑戦で誰かの誕生日を当てる)
0.5% An NBA team down by 30 at halftime wins
 (0.5% ハーフタイムに30点差で負けているNBAチームの勝利)
You get 4 M&Ms and they're all brown or yellow
1% Steph Curry gets two free throws and misses both
 (1% ステフ・カリーが2本のフリースローを獲得し、両方ともミスする)
LeBron James guesses your birthday, if each guess costs one free throw and he loses if he misses
1.5% You get two M&Ms and they're both red
 (1.50% M&Mを2つ買って、両方とも赤)
You share a birthday with a Backstreet Boy
2% You guess someone's card on the first try
 (2% 最初の試みで誰かのカードを推測)
3% You guess 5 coin tosses and get them all right
 (3% 5回のコイントスを推測し、全て当てる)
Steph Curry wins that birthday free throw game
4% You sweep a 3-game rock paper scissors series
 (4% 3ゲームのじゃんけんで勝つ)
Portland, Oregon has a white Christmas
You share a birthday with two US Senators
5% An NBA team down 20 at halftime wins
 (5% ハーフタイムにNBAチームが20点負けしていた場合の勝利)
You roll a natural 20
6% You correctly guess someone's card given 3 tries
 (6% 誰かのカードを3回で正しく推測する)
7%LeBron James gets two free throws and misses both
 (7% レブロン・ジェイムスが2本のフリースローを獲得し、両方ともミス)
8%You correctly guess someone's card given 4 tries
 (8% 誰かのカードを4回で正しく推測する)
9% Steph Curry misses a free throw
 (9% ステフ・カリーがフリースローをミス)
10% You draw 5 cards and get the Ace of Spades
 (10% 5枚のカードを引き、スペードのエースを手に入れる)
There's a magnitude 8+ earthquake in the next month
11% You sweep a 2-game rock paper scissors series
 (11% 2ゲームのじゃんけんで勝つ)
12% A randomly-chosen American lives in California
 (12% ランダムに選んだアメリカ人がカリフォルニアに住んでいる)
You correctly guess someone's card given 6 tries
You share a birthday with a US President
13% A d6 beats a d20
 (13% 6面サイコロが20面サイコロに勝つ)
An NBA team down 10 going into the 4th quarter wins
You pull one M&M from a bag and it's red
14% A randomly drawn scrabble tile beats a D6 die roll
 (14% ランダムに引いたスクラブルタイルが、6面サイコロに勝つ)
15% You roll a D20 and get at least 18
 (15% 20面サイコロを転がして、18以上の値を得る)
16% Steph Curry gets two free throws but makes only one
 (16% ステフ・カリーが2本のフリースローを獲得し、1本しか決められない)
17% You roll a D6 die and get a 6
 (17% 6面サイコロを転がして6を出す)
18% A D6 beats or ties a D20
 (18% 6面サイコロが20面サイコロを打ち負かすか、同点にする)
19% At least one person in a random pair is left-handed
 (19% ランダムなペアの中で少なくとも1人は左利き)
20% You get a dozen M&Ms and none of them are brown
 (20% M&Mが12個入っていて、どれも茶色でない)
21% St. Louis has a white Christmas
 (21% セントルイスのホワイトクリスマス)
22% An NBA team wins when they're down 10 at halftime
 (22% ハーフタイムに10点負けなのに、NBAチームが勝つ)
23% You get an M&M and it's blue
 (23% M&Mを手に入れて、それが青)
You share a birthday with a US senator
24% You correctly guess that someone was born in the winter
 (24% 誰かが冬に生まれたことを正しく推測する)
25% You correctly guess that someone was born in the fall
 (25% 秋に生まれた人を正しく推測する)
You roll two plain M&Ms and get M and M.
26% You correctly guess someone was born in the summer
 (26% 夏に生まれた人を正しく当てる。)
27% LeBron James misses a free throw
 (27% レブロン・ジェームズがフリースローをミス)
32% Pittsburgh has a white Christmas
 (32% ピッツバーグのホワイトクリスマス)
33% A randomly chosen Star Wars movie (Episodes I-IX) has "of the" in the title
 (33% ランダムに選んだ映画スター・ウォーズ(エピソードI~IX)のタイトルに「of the」が入る)
You win the Monty Hall sports car by picking a door and refusing to switch
You win rock paper scissors by picking randomly
34% You draw five cards and get an ace
 (34% 5枚のカードを引いてエースをゲット)
35% A random Scrabble tile is one of the letters in "random"
 (35% ランダムに引いたスクランブルタイルが、「random」の文字の1つです)
39% LeBron James gets two free throws but misses one
 (39% レブロン・ジェイムスが2本のフリースローを獲得するが、1本を逃す)
40% A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Steph Curry"
 (40% ランダムなスクランブルタイルを引き、「Steph Curry」の1文字に該当)
46% There's a magnitude 7 quake in LA within 30 years
 (46% 30年以内に、LAでマグニチュード7の地震)
48% Milwaukee has a white Christmas
 (48% ミルウォーキーのホワイトクリスマス)
A random Scrabble tile is a letter in Carly Rae Jepsen
 (ランダムに引いたスクランブルタイルに「Carly Rae Jepsen」の文字)
50% You get heads in a coin toss
 (50% コイントスで表(裏)をゲット)
53% Salt Lake City has a white Christmas
 (53% ソルトレイクシティでホワイトクリスマス)
54% LeBron James gets two free throws and makes both
 (54% レブロン・ジェイムスが2本のフリースローを獲得し、両方を決める)
58% A random Scrabble tile is a letter in "Nate Silver"
 (58% ランダムに引いたスクランブルタイルに「Nate Silver」の文字)
60% You get two M&Ms and neither is blue
 (60% M&Mを2つもらってもどちらも青くない)
65% Burlington, Vermont has a white Christmas
 (65% バーリントン(バーモント州)でホワイトクリスマス)
66% A randomly chosen movie from the main Lord of the Rings trilogy has "of the" in the title twice
 (66% ロード・オブ・ザ・リング三部作の中からランダムに選んだ映画で、タイトルに「of the」が二回入っている。)
67% You roll at least a 3 with a d6
 (67% あなたは6面サイコロで3以上を出す)
71% A random Scrabble tile beats a random dice roll
 (71% ランダムに引いたスクランブルタイルが、ランダムなサイコロに勝つ)
73% LeBron James makes a free throw
 (73% レブロン・ジェームズがフリースローを決める)
75% You drop two M&Ms and one of them ends with the "M" up so it's clear they're not Skittles
 (75% M&Mを2つ落として、片方は「M」で終わるので、スキットルではないことは明らか)
76% You get two M&Ms and neither is red
 (76% M&Mを2つもらってもどちらも赤でない)
77% You get an an M&M and it's not blue
 (77% M&Mをもらって、青くない)
78% An NBA team wins when they're up 10 at halftime
 (78% ハーフタイムに10点勝ちしているNBAチームの勝利)
79% St. Louis doesn't have a white Christmas
 (79% セントルイスでホワイトクリスマスがない)
81% Two random people are both right-handed
 (81% ランダムな2人とも右利きである)
83% Steph Curry gets two free throws and makes both
 (83% ステファン・カリーが2本のフリースローを獲得し、両方を決める)
85% You roll a d20 and get at least a 4
 (85% 20面サイコロを転がして4以上の数を得る)
87% An NBA team up by 10 going into the 4th quarter wins
 (87% NBAチームが第4クォーターに入るまでに10点勝ちになったチームの勝利)
88% A randomly chosen American lives outside California
 (88% ランダムに選んだアメリカ人がカリフォルニア州以外に住んでいる)
89% You roll a 3 or higher given two tries
 (89% 2回の試行で 3以上を出す)
90% Someone fails to guess your card given 5 tries
 (90% 5回のトライで誰かが君のカードを当てるのに失敗する)
91% You incorrectly guess that someone was born in August
 (91% 誰かが8月生まれだと間違って推測する)
Steph Curry makes a free throw
92% You guess someone's birth month at random and are wrong
 (92% 誰かの誕生月をランダムに推測し、間違う)
93% Lebron James makes a free throw given two tries
 (93% レブロン・ジェームズが2回のトライでフリースローを決める)
94% Someone fails to guess your card given 3 tries
 (94% 誰かが君のカードを当てるのに3回トライして失敗)
95% An NBA team wins when they're up 20 at halftime
 (95% NBAチームがハーフタイムに20点勝ちしていて、勝利を収める)
96% Someone fails to guess your card given 2 tries
 (96% 誰かが君のカードを当てるのに2回トライして失敗)
97% You try to guess 5 coin tosses and fail
 (97% 5回のコイントスを当てようとして失敗)
98% You incorrectly guess someone's birthday is this week
 (98% 誰かの誕生日が今週だと間違って推測する)
98.5% An NBA team up 15 points with 8 minutes left wins
 (98.5% 残り8分で15点勝ちのNBAチームが勝利)
99% Steph Curry makes a free throw given two tries
 (99% ステフ・カリーが、2回チャンスのフリースローを決める)
99.5% An NBA team that's up by 30 points at halftime wins
 (99.5% ハーフタイムに30点差をつけたNBAチームの勝利)
99.7% You guess someone's birthday at random and are wrong
 (99.7% 誰かの誕生日をランダムに推測して間違う)
99.8% There's not a magnitude 8 quake in California next year
 (99.8% 来年、カリフォルニアでマグニチュード8の地震がない)
99.9% A random group of three people contains a right-hander
 (99.9% 3人のランダムなグループには右利きが含まれている)
99.99% You incorrectly guess the last four digits of someone's social security number
 (99.99% 誰かの社会保障番号の下4桁を誤って推測してしまう)
99.9999999999999995% You pick up a phone, dial a random 10-digit number, and say 'Hello Barack Obama, there's just been a magnitude 8 earthquake in California!" and are wrong
 (99.9999999999999995% 電話を拾い、ランダムな10桁の数字をダイヤルして、「こんにちはバラク・オバマ、カリフォルニアでマグニチュード8の地震があった!」と言って、間違う)
0.00000001% You add "Hang on, this is big I'm going to loop in Carly Rae Jepsen", dial another random 10-digit number, and she picks up
 (00.00000001% 「まって、これは大きい。カーリー・ライ・ジェプセンでループするつもり」を追加し、別のランダムな10桁の数字をダイヤルし、彼女が拾う)

Alt-text: Call me, MAYBE.


 この記事のカテゴリは、xkcd日本語訳(2020年) です。

Fall Back - フォールバック


Fall Back(フォールバック)

男: It's 8 PM. Exactly six days until the polls close here.

女: Six days and one hour.
男: Oh right, fall back.
男: Ugh.

女: Personally, I think it's great.
女: Don't you want this moment to last as long as possible?

女: My pandemic anxiety and election anxiety have finally fused.
女: I have ascended.
女: I get breaking news alerts in my dreams.

男: I don't think the endless 24 hour news cycle has been good for either of us.
女: Well, then I have good news about Sunday!
男: Ughhh.

Alt-text: Doing great here in the sixth and hopefully final year of the 2016 election.


 この記事のカテゴリは、xkcd日本語訳(2020年) です。

xkcd Phone 12 - xkcdフォン 12


xkcd Phone 12(xkcdフォン 12)

Full drivetrain warranty
Coated for easy swallowing
Surgical-grade apps
Built-in 600lb magnet for magnet fishing
Oral-B partnership: hold phone against teeth to ultrasonically remove plaque
40mL emergency water supply
Security feature: unmarked side buttons
3,000,000-volt arc allows wireless charging from a range of up to 36 inches
99.9% BPA- and hands- free
Extended release charge cable
Closed timelike curves
Fits in standard shipping container
Interlocking, stackable
Nintendo partnership: GameBoy Printer compatibility
Sustain Pedal
CDC partnership: when in an indoor space with too many people, phone begins playing "We Like To Party! (The Vengabus)" at slowly increasing volume until everyone leaves
 (アメリカ疾病予防管理センターパートナーシップ:人が多すぎる屋内空間では、電話は「We Like To Party!(The Vengabus)」の曲をゆっくりと音量を上げ、全員が去るまで再生し始める)
Sacrificial anode
Tactical helium reserve
50% below critical mass (2x safety factor)
Shake for factory reset
Norton MacAfee protection: if you're ever attacked by John MacAfee, Peter Norton will come out of retirement to defend you

The xkcd Phone 12* and 12 Max**
 (XKCDフォン 12* と 12 Max**)

* Standard
** For people named Max

"The only phone you'll ever own"®™

Alt-text: New phone OS features: Infinite customization (home screen icons no longer snap to grid), dark mode (disables screen), screaming mode (self-explanatory), and coherent ultracapacitor-pumped emission (please let us know what this setting does; we've been afraid to try it).


 この記事のカテゴリは、xkcd日本語訳(2020年) です。

Curbside - 道端



ベレー帽: Hi, is this the shop that sells cursed items but when you try to return them the shop is gone?
電話先: Yes, how can I help you?

ベレー帽 : Do you do curbside pickup? I wanted to buy a cursed amulet that angers ghosts, and some groceries.
電話先: No, but it's okay, we wear masks.

ベレー帽: So you can't bring stuff out?
電話先: I'm afraid not.

ベレー帽: But it's so stuffy in there!
電話先: Why not think of the virus as part of the amulet's curse?

ベレー帽: Excuse me!? I'm trying to buy some bread and do battle with ghosts, not endanger my family and friends in a pandemic!
ベレー帽: I will take my business elsewhere.

Alt-text: The state has had so many contact tracers disappear into that shop that they've had to start a contact tracer tracing program.


 この記事のカテゴリは、xkcd日本語訳(2020年) です。